Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

A withdrawal rate is the share of a retirement portfolio you take out in the first year, expressed as a percentage. A "safe" withdrawal rate is a rule-of-thumb rate that research suggests a portfolio could sustain over a long retirement — but it is an assumption, not a guarantee. This calculator lets you test any rate and see, under steady-return assumptions, how long the money could last.

The 4% rule is a research-based rule of thumb (from the Trinity study) suggesting that withdrawing 4% of a portfolio in the first year, then adjusting that amount for inflation each year, historically sustained a roughly 30-year retirement. It is a useful starting point for planning, not a promise — real outcomes depend heavily on returns, inflation, and especially the order in which returns occur.

It depends on your withdrawal rate relative to your portfolio's real (after-inflation) return. This tool draws your balance down month by month in today's dollars and reports the number of years it lasts, the balance left at your horizon, and the rate that would make it last exactly your chosen number of years. These are estimates under a steady-return assumption, not forecasts.

No. This is a deterministic model: it assumes the same return every year. Real markets don't work that way, and the order of returns matters enormously when you're withdrawing — a few poor years early in retirement can drain a portfolio far faster than a steady-return estimate suggests. This is called sequence-of-returns risk, and it is the single biggest limitation of this model. Treat the results as education, not a safe amount to withdraw.

Yes. Everything is shown in today's dollars using an inflation-adjusted (real) return, and the withdrawal is a constant real amount that rises with inflation in nominal terms. That keeps the withdrawal and the balance directly comparable to what money is worth today.

No. This is an educational model that does not account for taxes, account types (401(k)/IRA/Roth), required minimum distributions, fees, Social Security, pensions, or healthcare costs. Real outcomes will differ once those are considered.

There is no single safe number, and this tool won't tell you one — that would be advice, not education. Lower rates last longer (or grow); higher rates run a portfolio down sooner. The 4% rule is a common reference point for a ~30-year horizon, but the right rate for any real situation depends on factors this model doesn't capture, including market volatility and the timing of returns.