How long will $1 million last in retirement?
Under a 4.5% nominal return, 2.5% inflation and a 4%-of-starting-balance withdrawal that rises with inflation (about $40,000 in year one), $1,000,000 would last approximately 34 years before depleting under these assumptions — though the figure is highly sensitive to the return you assume: about 31 years at 4%, and past 50 years at 6%.
Run it with your own numbers
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How long it lasts
34.3 years
Under these assumptions.
Annual withdrawal
$40,000
In today's dollars.
Assumptions behind this number
- 4.5% nominal expected return; 2.5% inflation → ~2% real growth.
- Withdrawals taken monthly and adjusted for inflation, so buying power stays constant (~$40,000/year to start).
- Monthly compounding; withdrawal at month-end.
- No taxes, fees, market crashes, or spending changes modelled — a smooth-return simplification. Change any value above.
Why the number comes out this way
This is a race between two forces: your portfolio grows at the real return (~2% here) while your inflation-adjusted withdrawals draw it down at 4% of the original balance. Because the 4% draw outpaces the ~2% real growth, the balance runs down steadily and depletes in about 34 years, close to the roughly 30-year horizon the classic 4% rule is built around.
The single most important lever is the gap between the withdrawal rate and the real return. Assume a lower 4% return and the same $1,000,000 lasts about 31 years; assume a higher 6% and it can stretch past 50 years; if real growth ever met or exceeded the withdrawal, the balance would in principle last indefinitely. That sensitivity is exactly why the "4% rule" is a rule of thumb, not a promise.
A real caution the smooth model cannot show: actual markets deliver returns in a jagged order, and a run of poor early years (sequence-of-returns risk) can shorten the horizon well below the average-return estimate. Treat ~34 years as an assumption-driven benchmark, not a schedule.
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Frequently asked questions
How long does $1 million last at a 4% withdrawal rate?
About 34 years under these assumptions (4.5% return, 2.5% inflation, inflation-adjusted withdrawals), and the answer is highly sensitive to the return you assume.
What if the return is only 4%?
The same $1,000,000 lasts about 31 years under these assumptions, because a lower return widens the gap between your withdrawals and portfolio growth, so it depletes a little faster.
Are the withdrawals adjusted for inflation?
Yes — the model raises the dollar withdrawal each year to keep buying power constant, starting near $40,000.
Does this account for market crashes?
No — it assumes a smooth return. In reality, a poor sequence of early returns can shorten how long the money lasts.
Is $1 million enough to retire on?
That depends entirely on your spending, taxes and timeline — this page shows a projection under stated assumptions, not personal advice. Adjust the inputs to model your own case.
Educational use only
Educational purposes only. Calculator results are estimates based on assumptions and user inputs. They are not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.